After two years of relentless growth, the cocoa market has taken a sharp turn. Prices that once seemed locked in a permanent climb have now retreated dramatically, reshaping expectations across the global chocolate industry.
In late 2024, cocoa futures were hovering near record territory, pushing close to twelve thousand dollars per metric ton. Fast forward a year, and the picture looks entirely different: prices have fallen to roughly five thousand dollars per ton, wiping out more than half of their value in a remarkably short period.
Analysts attribute the reversal primarily to unexpectedly strong crop results in Côte d’Ivoire. Forecasts earlier in the year had warned of shortages, but improved yields changed the narrative almost overnight. According to economist Simon Lacoume, the correction reflects a market finally stepping back from extremes and returning to levels driven more by fundamentals than panic.
For consumers, particularly in Southern Africa, the shift offers cautious optimism. Chocolate manufacturers were forced to pass rising costs onto shoppers last year, making even small treats noticeably more expensive. The recent price collapse gives producers some room to stabilize retail prices, potentially easing pressure ahead of peak seasonal demand.
Still, relief comes with a warning label. The cocoa supply chain remains vulnerable. West Africa dominates global production, and any disruption—whether from adverse weather patterns or crop disease—could rapidly send prices climbing again. The current dip does not erase structural risks.
Even after the correction, cocoa remains far more expensive than it was for much of the previous decade. Average prices between 2012 and 2022 were significantly lower, underscoring how volatile the market has become in recent years.
Countries outside West Africa, including Ecuador, continue efforts to expand production, but the region remains the uncontested powerhouse of cocoa farming. As a result, global pricing still hinges heavily on conditions in a relatively narrow geographic zone.
For now, the market has delivered an unexpected reprieve. Whether the sweetness lasts is another question entirely.
